2021 Pricing update (year to date, prepared 31 May 2021)
Last year we wrote an article on Pro Hart pricing, following on from the successful sale of “Picnic at Yabby Creek” (top picture) which sold for $22,500 (inc. buyer’s premium), 91.5 x 91.5 cm by Smith & Singer. In this article we explained that the average price of Pro Hart paintings sold through auctions based on cm2, increased from $3.13 per cm2 in 2019 to $4.11 per cm2 in 2020 – an annual price increase of 31.3%.
The question for Pro Hart investors was what would happen in 2021 year after such a strong increase in pricing the previous year? Would the prices continue to rise, consolidate and trade sideways or decline and give up some of last year’s gains?
At time of writing, we are pleased to advise that as at 31 May 2021, the average annual price has increased to $4.96 per cm2, a further increase of 20.6% for year to date, or a total 58.5% return since 1 January 2020 (source AASD website). The average Pro Hart painting has sold for slightly less in 2021, however the average price per cm2 increase suggests that the paintings coming on market are on average at least 20% smaller than 2020.
In terms of where the future pricing direction will be for remainder of 2021 year, it’s anyone’s guess, however this year’s positive year to date gains suggest that the upwards price trend may continue.
To view Pro Hart paintings for sale, click here to view our Pro Hart gallery.
In general, the fine art market continues to trend upwards for 2021, with many artists achieving record prices at auction. A case in point, Ben Quilty’s “The Beast”, 120 x 100 cm oil on linen, sold for $270,000 (inc. buyer’s premium) on 31 March 2021 at Menzies, against its estimate of $35,000 – $45,000, nearly 7 times higher than the estimated mid-point, confirming Quilty’s status as one of Australia’s great and emerging contemporary artists. The Beast smashed Quilty’s previous price record of $171,818 for “Paul’s Falcon”, 183 x 214 cm oil on linen, sold by Deutscher and Hackett in November 2020, which had an estimate of $90,000 – $120,000, a much larger painting (3 times larger) and perhaps arguably a better painting than the Beast.
2020 Pricing update (prepared 3 September 2020)
Last night, Pro Hart’s painting “Picnic at Yabby Creek” (1994), oil on canvas, 91.5 x 91.5 cm, sold for $22,500 (inc. buyers premium) through Smith & Singer (formerly Sotheby’s). The auctioneer’s selling estimate for the painting was $5,000 – $7,000 (which we believe was unrealistically low), however the $22.5k price achieved was an excellent result and exceeded our expectations.
After achieving such a result, which is even more remarkable considering the Covid pandemic and stage 4 lock downs in Victoria, we undertook the following analysis to review Pro Hart’s current pricing and valuations.
The following charts are based on Pro Hart auction prices and sourced from the AASD website.
Chart 1 – Average Annual Prices of Paintings Sold (Pro Hart)
Chart 2 – Average Annual Price per cm2 of Paintings Sold (Pro Hart)
Chart 3 – Number of Paintings Sold (Pro Hart)
Chart 4 – Index of Average Annual Prices of Paintings – Pro Hart (green) with all Australian paintings (red)
When looking at these charts we are particularly interested in chart 2 “Average Annual Price per cm2 of Paintings Sold”. We think this is the best indication of Pro Hart pricing, as this average price is calculated by the price of paintings sold divided by the area of the painting, to give an average price per cm2. This pricing methodology takes into account that there might be a difference in painting sizes, as compared to chart 1 “Average Annual Prices of Paintings Sold” which is quite a basic calculation (prices of total paintings sold divided by number sold).
For example chart 1, shows that annual prices for Pro Hart paintings was $4,251 in 2019 and has reduced to $3,823 in 2020 (year to date) – an implied annual price reduction of 10%. However this could be due to a relatively greater quantity of smaller paintings being sold during 2020. However chart 2 tells a different story, with the average price of Pro Hart paintings based on cm2, increasing from $3.13 per cm2 in 2019 to $4.11 per cm2 in 2020 – an annual price increase of 31.3%. This price increase continues the uptrend since 2014 when it hit a low of $2.63 per cm2. Interestingly, the current prices are still not at the peak level of $6.28 per cm2 in 2006, which was the year of Pro’s death (28 March 2006). If you purchased a Pro Hart painting in 2006 after Pro’s death on the expectation that his paintings would go up, the opposite has occurred and most paintings purchased that year would be worth less today than back then. Although it should also be noted that 2006 & 2007 were very strong years in the art market in general as can be seen by the spike in the red line in chart 4. According to chart 4, the overall art market in Australia had an annual increase of 85.9% in 2007 (1,492 index in 2006 to 2,774 index in 2007), only to crash and lose most of its gains in 2008 where the index fell to 1,645 as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) took its toll.
Interestingly, whilst GFC hit the art market hard in 2008, the same has not yet transpired with Covid. Whilst chart 4 shows that average prices of paintings has fallen in 2020, the auction market seems to be stronger then ever with many records for Australian artists being broken. For example, Deutscher and Hackett’s July auction witnessed the highest price achieved at auction in Australia since 2017, with the record sale of Fred Williams’ Hummock in Landscape (1967) which sold for $2,823,000 (including buyer’s premium), smashing the previous Fred William’s record price of $2,287,500 (You Yangs Landscape 1, 1963) by over $530k. Similar results were achieved at last nights Smith & Singer auction where numerous paintings sold for double the price they achieved just a few year’s prior.
In summary, the art market is trading strongly in 2020 despite Covid, and Pro Hart prices appear to be increasing.
Coolabah Art has one of the largest Pro Hart collections in Australia. Click here to view our Pro Hart gallery.
